Avoided Emissions

Click here to know the methodology

Overview of calculation of the avoided emissions

Avoided emissions were calculated using the Climate Fund’s tool, with the exception of the biofuels and transport sectors. These calculations included projects involving credit operations that were directly supported by BNDES, as well as privatization and concession projects that the bank has structured.

It should be noted that, for each sector, the avoided emissions calculation was only possible for the types of project available in the Climate Fund tool. The scope of this calculation is therefore less than the scope of the following two panels, which deal with disbursements and delivery indicators associated with the NDC. Detailed information about each sector is below.

Energy: the avoided emissions of the energy sector were calculated by multiplying the energy to be generated by the project, during its lifetime, by the emissions’ factor of the National Interconnected System, and discounting transmission losses. The Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovations provides the official emissions’ factors.

Forests: the avoided emissions for the reforestation projects were calculated based on the carbon capture of the restored area at the end of the growth cycle, considering the biome’s characteristics to stablish the time of growth.

Urban Mobility:  the avoided emissions for the urban mobility projects were calculated comparing the emissions of the transport mode in question (on rails or BRTs) with the emissions of other transport mode, more intensive in GHG emissions (fossil fuel car, moto or buses), during the projects’ lifetime.

Public Lighting: the emissions avoided in the public lighting sector were calculated by multiplying the energy that is to be saved due to increased efficiency in the park during its service life by the emission factor for the National Connection System provided by the Brazilian Ministry of Science and Technology and Innovations, subtracting transmission losses.

Biofuels: avoided emissions in the biofuels sector were calculated by multiplying: i) variation in the producer's emission factor associated with support under the Renovabio Program; ii) their respective production capacity; iii) the total financing period. Emission factors refer to ratios of CO2e emitted per liter of biofuel produced, and producers must provide proof of these factors in order to participate in the program.

Solid waste: avoided emissions through the capture and controlled burning of landfill biogases were calculated by multiplying the estimated amount of methane burned by methane’ s global warming potential (25) and its atmospheric half-life (0.0012). Emissions avoided through means of investments in electricity generation in landfills were calculated by multiplying the estimated energy that is to be produced by the emission factor for the National Integrated System’s construction margin (in tCO2/MWh) provided by the Brazilian Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovations (MCTI). 

Finally, emissions avoided through investment in biomethane production and distribution (using landfill biogas) involved the calculation of emissions prevented through biomethane (multiplying the amount of biomethane by the emission factor for dry natural gas provided under the Brazilian GHG Protocol Program) followed by the subtraction of emissions of the biogas purification process (energy and diesel consumption). 

Transport: emissions avoided by shifting demand for cargo transport from more carbon-intensive to less intensive modes of transport (rail and waterway) based on emission factors per ton-kilometer (TKU). TKU is a measure of kilometers traveled multiplied by the load carried. The calculation of avoided emissions involves the reduction seen when moving from a scenario in which the project has not been implemented to one involving the transport project. For each scenario, emissions are calculated by multiplying the amount of TKU for each mode of transport by the respective emission factor and finding the sum of results for each mode. In Brazil, the waterway transport mode emits on average slightly less CO2 per TKU than the railway mode. Both rail and waterway transport emit significant less CO2 than road transport.
 

Conversions to other metrics, in order to put the avoided emissions in context

Energy and Public Lighting: to convert the avoided emissions from BNDES projects in emissions generated to produce the energy consumed in the state of Rio de Janeiro, the electricity consumption for 2020 was considered. The reference for this figure is the 2021 Statistical Electricity Yearbook, published by Empresa de Pesquisa Energética. Click here to acess. 

Forests and Solid waste: to convert the avoided emissions from BNDES projects in soccer fields, the following calculation was done: the estimated avoided emissions from approved projects were divided by avoided emissions per square meter of forest and then divided by the standard size of a soccer field.

Urban Mobility, Biofuels, Transport and Total: to convert the avoided emissions from the BNDES' projects into the emissions time of the automobile fleet in the São Paulo metropolitan region, average daily emissions of 14,912 tCO2e of GHG in 2021 were considered, based on "Emissões Veiculares no Estado de São Paulo" (Vehicle Emissions in the State of São Paulo), published by the Environmental Company of the State of São Paulo (CETESB). Click here to access.